A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, a bellwether for global trade, increased its full-year guidance for a fourth time in less than six months, citing stronger demand and higher freight rates caused by supply chain disruptions from the attacks in the Red Sea.

Maersk now sees underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of $11 billion to $11.5 billion this year, compared with a previous forecast of $9 billion to $11 billion, the Copenhagen-based company said on October 21. Analysts had expected $10.1 billion on average in estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Maersk had already raised its 2024 profit forecast in May, June and August, as the Red Sea conflict was having a larger than previously expected impact on the world’s supply lines. The Houthi attacks have since late last year forced container vessels to sail south of Africa, absorbing some of the overcapacity in the container industry, which in turn has helped boost container rates.

Maersk said earlier in October that it will start its vessel-sharing partnership with Hapag-Lloyd AG in 2025 by sailing south of Africa, indicating the container lines expect the Red Sea to remain unsafe well into next year. 

On October 21, the Danish shipping line also said it expects global container demand growth to be 6% this year, up from a range of 4%-6% seen previously. Its ADRs climbed as much as 7%.

Maersk, which controls about one-sixth of the world’s container trade, has in recent years sought to grow in land-based transport and freight-forwarding businesses — where profit margins historically have been higher than at sea. Still, last quarter it dropped a bid for Deutsche Bahn AG’s logistics unit DB Schenker, which Danish peer DSV A/S ended up acquiring for €14.3 billion ($15.5 billion).

Third-Quarter Results:

• Maersk also reported revenue of $15.8 billion in the three months through September.
• Underlying Ebitda was $4.8 billion and underlying Ebit of $3.3 billion, the company said, citing preliminary unaudited figures.
• Maersk will publish its full interim results on October 31.