An analysis from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce (CCC) found that cities in states that voted for President Donald Trump in the 2024 election are likely to feel the largest impacts from a protracted trade war with Canada. 

The CCC's report was released on March 27, analyzing 41 U.S. metro areas to determine their export dependency on Canada. It assigned each area a numerical value based on the percentage of their exports that go to Canada, and their rate of exports to Canada as a share of GDP. Nine of the 10 most vulnerable metro areas were located in states that voted for Trump, led by San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas, Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Michigan, and Kansas City, Missouri-Kansas. 

Nearly half of the San Antonio area's exports go to Canada, according to the analysis, spanning the automotive, aerospace and petroleum refining sectors. Detroit leans heavily on its exporting of auto parts to Ontario, with the state and the province combining to produce more than a fifth of North America's vehicles. Almost 40% of Kansas City's total exports are shipped into Canada, primarily chemicals and agri-food products.

"From the assembly lines in Michigan to the steel smelters in Pennsylvania to the aerospace hub in Kansas, U.S. metropolitan areas with high export exposure to Canada will face economic consequences if these integrated trade flows are disrupted," the report reads. "Policymakers weighing next moves would do well to remember the livelihoods that hang in the balance and that our geography makes us stronger, together."

Planned 25% tariffs from the Trump administration against Mexico and Canada are currently scheduled to kick in April 2, after they were twice delayed by the president in January and February respectively. Then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also retaliated against separate blanket tariffs against all foreign steel and aluminum imported into the U.S., with Canada's levies covering more than C$100 billion ($70 billion) worth of American imports over the course of 21 days, starting in early March. 

Shortly after Trump introduced new 25% tariffs on March 26 on all cross-border auto trade into the U.S., Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to retaliate by inflicting "as much pain as possible to the American people," CBC reports. Ford reportedly plans to speak with his fellow premiers at the start of April to discuss a new round of tariffs against the U.S.