Henry Wilkinson, chief intelligence officer with Dragonfly Intelligence, describes the current threats to global shipping and aviation posted by geopolitical conflicts.

The biggest risk facing international shipping right now is the conflict between Israel and Iran, Wilkinson says. It raises serious questions about the possibility of intensified attacks by the Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea, as well as the safety of ships in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. That, he says, is a “critical flash point.”

History provides limited guidance as to what might happen next. Previous conflicts in the region have had a severe impact on shipping, driven by the years-long, “largely underreported shadow conflict” between Israel and Iran. However, the scenario could be even more dire now, because “this is first serious threat we’ve seen to the integrity of the Iranian regime,” says Wilkinson. “It changes the stakes.”

Of particular concern is what would happen if the U.S. further escalates its military involvement in the conflict. That could broaden the range of shipping and infrastructure targets that Iran considers to be fair game for attacks. “The potential for things to happen in such a destabilized setting is becoming greater,” Wilkinson says.

If Iran were to strike at oil and gas assets in the Gulf, and close the Strait of Hormuz, “that would almost certainly trigger a U.S. response,” he says. Or, the U.S. could undertake additional military action without such provocation, which would cause Iran to bring pressure to bear on the international community for relief.

Aviation, too, stands to be seriously disrupted if Iran were to begin launching ballistic missiles from the southwestern region of the country, impacting major air corridors over the Gulf states. The resulting need to seek alternative routing could prove “extremely expensive” to airlines, Wilkinson says.