Gartner is advising supply chain leaders to be proactive about managing potential shipping bottlenecks in the Middle East, as carriers have sought to redirect traffic away from the region in the wake of growing tensions between Iran and Israel.

"The Israel-Iran conflict is a stress test for every supply chain strategy built since COVID-19," Gartner said in a June 24 release.

Gartner identified four critical chokepoints that could arise as a result of the ongoing Iran/Israel conflict: the Red Sea/Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, regional high-volume ports, and Eurasian rail freight. In the Red Sea, Gartner predicts that transit times between the Asian-Pacific region and Europe could double as a result of the conflict, while transit times through the Strait of Hormuz could increase by up to 14 days. Shipping costs at regional high-volume ports could also spike by as much as 50%, Gartner estimates, in addition to four-to-six week delays for Eurasian rail freight due to surges in demand. 

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To mitigate those impacts, Gartner advises supply chain leaders to proactively plan for increases to fuel surcharges and marine insurance premiums, to reassess over-reliance on Middle East suppliers, and identify high-risk components and raw materials that come from the region. In a June 26 customer update, ocean carrier Maersk also reported that it had reopened cargo acceptance for imports at Israel's Haifa port, after halting container service to the shipping hub on June 20. Export cargo acceptance at Haifa remains paused, although Maersk said that it is "monitoring the situation very closely," and expects to resume export service "once the lower safety risk of doing so has been confirmed."

"The Strait of Hormuz remains navigable, and Maersk is closely following maritime security advisories," the carrier said. "Our teams are working out contingency plans on a case-by-case basis to swiftly adapt to potential changes and will update customers of changes to the situation."