The U.S. logistics sector stalled out in September, as softer freight demand and a cooling warehouse market pulled the industry’s growth index to its lowest level in six months.

Each month, a coalition of university business schools and the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals release the Logistic Managers' Index (LMI), which measures the rate of expansion or contraction across key areas of U.S. supply chain activity to provide a snapshot of the industry's health and momentum. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion, but readings trending downward — even when above 50 — signal that growth is slowing, offering an early indicator of cooling demand or shifting capacity within logistics networks.

According to LMI released on October 9, overall logistics activity registered a 57.4 reading in September, down nearly two points from August’s 59.3. That marks the lowest reading for the index since March, suggesting that a post-summer rebound in freight and warehousing has begun to taper off as companies recalibrate inventories and brace for a softer peak season.

In the transportation capacity sector, readings fell by 2.2 points to 55.1 between August and September, indicating that available freight capacity continued to expand, though at a slower pace, and that carriers are adjusting to softer shipping volumes as demand has leveled off. Transportation utilization values also dipped by nearly five points month-to-month to a 55.0 reading, well short of September's eight-year average of 65.1. 

On the warehousing side, capacity readings crept up by roughly one point to 51.6 between August and September while utilization rose by more than three points to 65.3, signaling continued, albeit uneven, demand for space. Warehouse price ratings, however, dropped more than six points to 66.0, marking their slowest rate of growth since the spring.

Retailers and other downstream firms continued restocking ahead of the holidays, although scores for inventory levels dipped by three points between August and September to 55.7, while inventory costs remained high at 75.5. Analysts warned that those higher costs could squeeze margins if consumer demand softens during what's expected to be a difficult holiday season for American shoppers.

Looking ahead, researchers expect modest expansion over the next year, with the projected LMI for the next 12 months falling to 59.6 from August's 63.9 forecast. Trade uncertainty, potential tariff hikes, and a slowing manufacturing sector are all clouding the outlook as well, in addition to the ongoing government shutdown that's expected to leave 750,000 federal workers furloughed.