Recent declines in U.S. import cargo volumes are expected to bleed over into 2026, as tariffs and ongoing economic uncertainty continue to slow global trade.

According to estimates from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, import volumes at major U.S. ports are expected to dip by more than 10% year-over-year in January, 8.5% in February, nearly 17% in March, and just under 11% in April. That would keep in line with recent trends, by which cargo volumes have fallen year-over-year in each month dating back to September. 

“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said in a December 8 release. 

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Although numbers have yet to be reported for the last two months of 2025, November import volumes are expected to come in 11.6% under 2024's total for that same month, while a 12.7% year-over-year dip is forecast for December. If the projection holds for December, that would also mark the slowest single month for U.S. imports since June 2023. And although the closing months of the year are traditionally slow, that tendency was exacerbated this year, as many retailers sought to bring inventory in early to get ahead of expected tariffs from the Trump administration, a swathe of which kicked in during November. 

Despite the recent slowdown in cargo volumes, the NRF still expects U.S. holiday retail sales to come in over $1 trillion for the first time ever, beating out last year's $976.1 billion total by as much as 4.2%. Nearly 203 million consumers shopped during the five-day Thanksgiving holiday weekend as well, besting the previous record for that period by 1.3%.