Tim Lee, partner in the Corporate Department and Commercial Transactions Practice Group of the Honigman law firm, discusses how the trucking industry might fare in 2026.

Entering 2025, there were expectations of a rebound in the industry’s condition over the prior year, with rates and profits climbing. That didn’t happen, says Lee, and the same question now hovers over 2026: Will full recovery finally arrive? “There’s a little bit of hesitation about when and if the rebound will occur, and the trickle-down effect that will have on the industry,” he says. 

Persistent supply chain disruptions translate into continued trouble for a sector with historically “razor-thin” margins, leading to the possibility of additional broker and carrier insolvencies, Lee says. 

The cancellation of commercial drivers’ licenses based on lack of citizenship is another concern going into 2026, although Lee believes that a simultaneous drop in demand, the result of a softening economy, uncertainty over tariffs, geopolitical issues and a drop in imports, would at least partially offset the impact of that occurrence. In the end, the industry could still see a rough balance between supply and demand. 

Self-driving trucks will play an increasing role in 2026, building on their current presence on a route between Dallas and Houston. Lee believes the year will see the coming of truly autonomous trucks, with humans not required in the cab at all, although the scaling up of those vehicles will take much longer than a year. Barriers to their growth include concerns over safety and the need to build human-staffed hubs at both ends of a given route. Still, he says, “based on simulations I’ve see, we’re getting there. The technology is amazing.” 

Serious questions remain about the ongoing viability of independent owner-operators, whose margins are challenged by the cost of new equipment and maintenance of older units, both of which add to their cost per mile and erode profitability, Lee says.