Although U.S. retail activity remained soft through the 2025 holiday season, the industry showed clear signs of stabilizing late in the year, driven by slowing contraction, falling returns volumes and improved retailer credit health as interest rates eased.

According to preliminary data from consultancy firm Dun & Bradstreet and FedEd Dataworks's newly-announced "Retail Momentum Index," retail momentum — defined as the overall pace of retail shipping and returns — remained negative in the fourth quarter of 2025, although the 10.3% decline was less than half the year-over-year dip recorded in that same quarter the previous year. Returns volumes fell by 54.5% year-over-year as well, driven by higher demand and more disciplined discretionary spending from both businesses and consumers.

However, the path to stabilization was a rocky one in 2025, as policy uncertainty fueled by the Trump administration's "Liberation Day" tariffs weakened retail momentum through Q2 and Q3, before conditions leveled out as tariffs eased late in the year. In 2026, the index expects retail activity to remain "broadly stable" through the first half of the year, barring the arrival of any new major regulatory or policy changes. 

The findings come as part of a broader data partnership announced on February 5 between Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks, aimed at giving businesses a better read on shifts in retail and supply chain activity. By combining FedEx’s air and ground shipping data with Dun & Bradstreet’s maritime shipping intelligence, the Retail Momentum Index is designed to provide a real-time snapshot of the pace and direction of U.S. retail activity across the U.S.

"Through our deepening collaboration with FedEx Dataworks, we are turning data into signals and signals into insights that ultimately help illuminate risks before they become disruptions," said Dun & Bradstreet general manager of risk Alex Zuck.