This year's Super El Niño season could lead to immediate global financial losses of $986 billion in 2027, and up to $7.2 trillion over the ensuing six years, driven by investment collapses and supply chain disruptions.

A September 8 report from Oxford Economics points to likely cascading impacts on global investments.

 "Following extreme weather disruptions, both public and private sector funds are diverted toward reparations," Oxford Economics explains. "While necessary, this expenditure only restores lost production capacity rather than expanding it, which can crowd out investment in infrastructure upgrades, technology, education, R&D, and so on."

Major climate disasters can also make it harder and more expensive to borrow money. Banks may see more homeowners and businesses fall behind on loans, while damaged or devalued property gives them less security to lend against. And while insurance can cover some losses, repeated disasters can drive up premiums and make coverage harder to obtain.

Oxford Economics cites impacts to health and labor productivity as well, given that extreme weather can expand the transmission of water-borne diseases, while droughts can increase the risk of wildfires and smoke exposure. That can lead to higher rates of illness, increased caregiving demands; while intense heat stress creates critical workforce gaps in labor-intensive sectors like agriculture and construction.

Worse, the Super El Niño season is likely to persist well into next year, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning of a near 100% likelihood that its peak could extend through February 2027.

“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes," said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. "The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up."

El Niño conditions occur every two to seven years globally, warming sea surface temperatures, and bringing a wave of extreme weather conditions ranging from droughts and intense heat in some parts of the world, to floods and heavy rains in others. Whereas a typical El Niño is marked by sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific rising by 0.5 degrees Celsius above historical averages, a "Super" El Niño occurs when that increase crests the 2 degree threshold. This season has already been particularly intense even by Super El Niño standards, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rising as much as 2.6 degrees above average between late July and early August.