The global logistics and express market will shake off the effects of the recession to reach $4tr by 2013, up from its current value of $3.5tr, according to Datamonitor.

Using its new Global Logistics and Express Analyser, the independent business analyst has predicted that following a severe slump in 2009, logistics and express spend as a proportion of global GDP will regain its 2008 peak of 9.3 percent  in 2013. However, a number of trends are creating a challenging environment in which it will be harder to uncover opportunities for growth.

Demand will continue to shift away from North America and Europe to the emerging markets of Latin America, BRIC and the Middle East. This trend is reflected in the fact that North America and Europe are expected to lose a 2.2 percent and 1.5 percent share of the global market by 2013, while Asia Pacific is expected to gain nearly 1.5 percent.

Datamonitor believes sustainability and cost-effectiveness will be two of the main drivers of the industry's development between now and 2013. This will result in a modal shift, with airfreight losing ground to rail, road and sea.

"The global logistics and express market saw $300bn of its value wiped out in 2009 alone, and even if the industry has started to enjoy a recovery in volumes, changing customer preferences, modal shifts, technological advancements, environmental concerns and other trends have fundamentally changed the landscape in which service providers have to re-establish themselves," says Erik Van Baaren, senior logistics and express analyst at Datamonitor.

He adds that sustainability measures will have a significant impact on shipping and transport companies' services and costs, but "these strategies need to take into account the inherent risks of reducing the performance of the industry for the sake of sustainability."

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