The word from the Panjiva research team: we saw a seasonal decline in global trade activity in September.  Specifically, there was a 6-percent decrease in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, as well as a 6-percent decrease in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.

• The number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. experienced a 7-percent month-over-month decrease from August to September.  In both 2009 and 2008, the month-over-month decrease was 5 percent.

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List held steady at 16 percent.

• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months increased slightly to 24 percent - the first increase since April 2009.

• On a positive note, we didn't see a million shipments in any month during 2009; however, we've seen over a million shipments in each of the last five months.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50 percent or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.

• "Significant manufacturers" are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of September, there were 95,342 significant manufacturers.

• "Significant buyers" are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of September, there were 81,881 significant buyers.

Source: Panjiva