The threat environment of cargo theft has changed, yet many supply chain leaders are still defending against a previous version of it. The traditional view of opportunistic criminals stealing whatever is available, and pushing it through underground channels no longer reflects how cargo fraud operates. Today’s theft activity is increasingly coordinated, and functions more like a structured resale business built around speed and demand signals. 

Overhaul’s 2025 Annual Cargo Theft Report recorded a 16% increase in cargo thefts across the U.S. and found a distinct shift in what methods criminals are using to steal goods. Deceptive pickups have become the fastest-growing and most widely distributed type of theft ever recorded. These incidents increased 35% in 2025, and now account for 10% of all recorded cargo theft events. Unlike straight theft, which relies on unattended equipment, deceptive pickup relies on fraud and deception. Identity theft, broker spoofing, hacked email threads, and digitally altered bills of lading have become routine tools. 

Doctoring paperwork has expanded the scope of viable targets. Previously, thefts around the U.S.-Mexico border were limited because of the high number of checkpoints there. Anything stolen often had to be liquidated in that area, which also limited what and how much was stolen. Now that thieves can use technology to alter and doctor paperwork, stolen products can be moved further, and highly-regulated goods like alcohol and tobacco can be more easily reinserted into the legitimate supply chain.  

Artificial intelligence is accelerating much of this fraud. AI image generation tools have come a long way in just the past few months. Bills of lading can be doctored quickly, and look legitimate. Verification photos and videos can be fabricated with increasing realism. AI is making it easier than ever to create convincing documentation faster and at a greater scale. 

As criminal groups move faster, they are also increasingly shifting which categories of goods they target. Electronics continue to dominate, accounting for 22% of thefts, but criminal groups track demand signals closely to determine what they will target and what’s easiest to liquidate at that time. During the early pandemic, trailer loads of toilet paper became more profitable than televisions because consumer scarcity drove resale premiums. After major storms, thefts of lumber and shingles increase. The categories at most risk shift as soon as demand changes. 

Consumer behavior has driven a new opportunity for criminals to liquidate their cargo, accelerating the time that goods move from theft to the secondary market. Historically, organized cargo theft relied on layers. Every layer in a criminal organization would take a cut of the crime, and it would take multiple handoffs to get goods to the final point of sale. Now, that chain is compressed. Criminal groups increasingly control the resale pathway themselves, which changes both the economics and the exposure profile, making a wider range of shipments financially viable targets. 

Much of that change is enabled primarily through e-commerce websites and social media marketplaces. These sites make it easier for thieves to inject inventory directly into fulfillment networks. Once the products are commingled inside a warehouse, it becomes extremely difficult to trace them back to the original owner. If law enforcement identifies stolen serial numbers in pooled inventory, isolating the units does not automatically identify the seller who submitted them. 

While this fraud is still concentrated in major logistics hubs, such as California and Texas, it’s expanding into secondary states. Criminal groups are targeting areas with lower operational awareness and fewer controls. The risk is endemic to the cargo that the criminals are pursuing. 

That growth is not only limited to the U.S. We’re starting to see the beginnings of this type of fraud expand internationally, in places like Western Europe. It’s a more complicated risk environment because shipments are crossing country borders as quickly as trucks in the U.S. cross state lines, but since many of these tactics have already been refined here, this fraud will likely grow quickly overseas. Noticing these patterns now presents a rare opportunity to get ahead of the fraud before it escalates. 

It’s common for an organization to assume that if cargo theft hasn’t happened to them, it’s unlikely to happen at all, but cargo theft is expected to increase by at least another 13% in 2026. Many companies have avoided theft because organized groups have limited personnel and have become more targeted in their operations. 

Supply chain leaders need to recognize that cargo theft now operates as a coordinated business working against them. The tactics, and the targeting of specific products will continue to change. New technology will lower barriers. Proactive, layered security is how organizations stay ahead of the curve, as criminals are constantly refining their approach. 

Danny Ramon is director of intelligence and response at Overhaul.