“Retailers have done all they can to stock their shelves and build up inventories in case the worst should happen,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “We believe it’s time for President Obama to send in a federal mediator and do what it takes to reach an agreement that will work to the benefit of not just labor and management but all the businesses and consumers who depend on these ports.”

Import volume at U.S. ports covered by the Global Port Tracker report is expected to total 1.4 million containers this month, down from 1.59 million each in September and October, a number that broke the previous monthly high of 1.52 million set in August. Cargo volume has been well above average each month since spring as retailers have imported merchandise early in case of any disruption on the docks.

The contract between the Pacific Maritime Association and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union expired July 1, prompting concerns about potential disruptions that could affect holiday merchandise. The lack of a contract and other operational issues have led to crisis-level congestion at the ports in recent weeks, prompting concern of a shutdown. NRF and more than 100 other business groups last week asked President Obama to send a federal mediator to help with negotiations.

The 1.59 million twenty-foot equivalent units handled in September, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available, was up 5.2 percent from August and 10.9 percent from September 2013.
  
October was estimated at 1.59 million TEU, within about 3,000 containers of September’s level and up 11 percent from the same month last year. November’s forecast of 1.4 million TEU would be up 3.9 percent from last year, and December is forecast at 1.36 million TEU, up 3.3 percent.

Those numbers would bring 2014 to a total of 17.3 million TEU, an increase of 6.4 percent over 2013’s 16.2 million. Imports in 2012 totaled 15.8 million. The first half of 2014 totaled 8.3 million TEU, up 7 percent over last year.

January 2015 is forecast at 1.42 million TEU, up 3.1 percent from January 2014, February at 1.35 million TEU, up 8.4 percent from last year, and March at 1.33 million TEU, up 2.3 percent.

The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting 4.1 percent holiday season sales growth and 3.6 percent growth for 2014 overall. Cargo volume does not correlate directly with sales but is a barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“September was a bumper crop well above even our own expectations,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Despite all the delays, vessels do continue to berth and discharge their cargo.”

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by the consulting firm Hackett Associates, covers the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades and Miami on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Source: National Retail Federation