The strong flow of European gasoline shipments to the U.S. seen in recent months has eased during June 2023, just as inventories of road fuel on the Atlantic Coast have tumbled.

European gasoline and blending component cargoes to the U.S. are poised to drop to a three-month low in June, with volumes likely to be about 350,000 barrels a day. That’s a 17% drop compared to May 2023, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg based on data from shipping analytics firm Vortexa Ltd.

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Shipments on the route surged in April and May ahead of the U.S. driving season. Flows in June are set to be slightly below 2022 levels but still well above the average for the period between then and April.

“Weekly loadings from Europe pointed toward USAC started to show signs of slowing as soon as the second week of June,” said Pamela Munger, a senior market analyst at Vortexa.

Europe is the biggest external supplier of gasoline to the U.S. East Coast, mainly to the New York Harbor area. The elevated shipments in April and May resulted in a surge in cargo arrivals in the U.S. after a voyage of about two weeks.

“This recent import spike from Europe into USAC was likely due to a combination of factors including large spot buying in the run-up to the July 4 U.S. holiday amid unplanned refinery outages” on both the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, Munger said.

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June’s decline coincides with a sharp drop in East Coast gasoline inventories. Stockpiles plunged during the week of June 22 to far below seasonal norms following steady gains since mid-May, according to U.S. government data.

Still, overall European gasoline exports are likely to be steady during June.

“The decline in import demands from the USAC has come as European gasoline is picking up, which means the Mediterranean barrels are finding homes in ARA” Munger added, referring to the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp trading hub.