The Port of Los Angeles isn't expecting a sizable surge in cargo following a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and China, although it does expect volumes from China to tick up. 

During a May 19 briefing, Port of Los Angeles executive director Gene Seroka said that he's anticipating vessel volumes to come in well below what the port saw during the peak of pandemic, while predicting lower inventory for businesses "across a variety of retail sectors," as well as for parts supplies for U.S. factories. 

"That'll leave us with fewer selections of products and likely higher prices," he continued. "For now, uncertainty remains in every business meeting that I have, and trying to find a way to make the best decisions for companies possible still remains elusive."

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Seroka also confirmed that U.S. companies have started to resume shipments from China, after many had paused orders in the lead-up to the Trump administration announcing the tariff pause in early May. That said, the sudden demand for cargo space has led to a spike in shipping rates, prompting retailers and manufacturers to "carefully evaluate their strategies." In a May 15 update on X, Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen estimated that ocean freight bookings from China to the U.S. were up 275% week-over-week.

"There won't be enough ships for all this cargo," he added, warning shippers to "get ready for surge pricing." 

Over the next four weeks, Seroka said that the Port of Los Angeles expects volumes to come in around 70-80% of what's considered normal for this time of year, citing "a whipsaw effect of financial data, markets, consumer sentiment, and the downgrade of U.S. credit by Moody's." Businesses also continue to face an uncertain economic environment in the months to come, with the pause on reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and China set to expire in July if the two sides can't find common ground on a trade deal.