Dan Swartz, principal in the customs and trade practice of Crowe LLP, speculates on how the incoming Trump Administration will impact tariffs on China and other U.S. trading partners, as well as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Candidate Trump talked on the campaign trail about imposing a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports coming into the U.S. — with the exception of those from China, which would be subject to tariffs of 50% to 60%. Even consumer goods, which “did not feel the full impact” of the tariffs imposed by Trump in his first term in 2018, probably won’t escape this time, Swartz says.

For certain imported products, there will likely be some grounds for exclusion from the tariffs, he notes, especially if they aren’t available in the U.S. marketplace.

That said, there’s bipartisan sentiment in Congress on the need for getting tougher with China on trade. Bills have been introduced to eliminate the “de minimis” cap that allows individual packages with a value of $800 or less to enter the U.S. duty-free. China has taken full advantage of that privilege, flooding the U.S. with millions of small parcels, many of which aren’t intended for direct shipment to purchasers. Swartz says Congress is more likely to eliminate the de minimis exemption rather than lower the money amount that permits duty-free entry. The current state of affairs, he adds, “has caused really quite a strain on the Customs service.”

Such legislative and executive actions can be seen as part of a larger effort to disrupt the U.S.-China trading relationship. But whether Trump’s proposals are meant to bring China to the negotiating table, or encourage an expansion of domestic manufacturing in the U.S., remains to be seen. What’s clearer, Swartz says, is that “the idea that we’re going to open up the U.S. to China imports without getting any reciprocity to their market is coming to an end.”

Also uncertain under the second Trump Administration is the fate of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is up for review in 2026.