With a chaotic series of on-again-off-again tariffs imposed by the U.S. on its trading partners, import cargo at the nation’s major container ports is expected to drop dramatically beginning in May, according to the Global Port Tracker report released April 9 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“While we appreciate the 90-day pause [on reciprocal tariffs for most nations except China], there remains great concern remains about the uncertainty of the tariffs. The global tariff remains in place and is a significant tax increase on imports,” said NRF Executive Vice President of Government Relations David French in a statement to SupplyChainBrain April 10.

“The escalation with China is concerning as well, especially for companies that are not able to shift their sourcing. We agree on the need for better trade, but we need to use tools other than tariffs to achieve those deals.”

“Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “At this point, retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.”According to the Hackett report imports during the second half of 2025 are now expected to be down at least 20% year over year, said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett.

Even balanced against elevated levels earlier this year, that could bring total 2025 cargo volume to a net decline of 15% or more unless the situation changes.“In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Hackett said. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.06 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in February, although the Ports of New York and New Jersey have yet to report final data. That was down 7.5% from January but up 5.2% year over year. It was the busiest February in three years even through the month is traditionally the slowest of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China.

Ports have not yet reported March’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.14 million TEUs, up 11.1% year over year.

April — which includes cargo shipped before the new tariffs were announced — is forecast at 2.08 million TEUs, up 3.1% year over year. But May is expected to end 19 consecutive months of year-over-year growth, dropping sharply to 1.66 million TEUs, down 20.5% from the same time last year. June is forecast at 1.57 million TEUs, the lowest volume since February 2023 and a 26.6% drop year-over-year. July is forecast at 1.69 million TEUs, down 27% year over year, and August at 1.7 million TEUs, down 26.8%.

Before the latest round of tariffs was announced, April was forecast at 2.13 million TEU, up 5.7% year over year; May at 2.14 million TEU, up 2.8%; June at 2.07 million TEUs, down 3.2%, and July at 1.99 million TEUs, down 13.9%.

The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 11.73 million TEUs, down 2.9% year over year rather than the total of 12.78 million TEUs, up 5.7% year over year, that was forecast before the tariffs announcement. Imports have been elevated since last summer, first as retailers brought in cargo ahead of an October strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports and then in anticipation of an escalation of tariffs after the November elections. Imports during 2024 totaled 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7% from 2023 and the highest since 2021’s record 25.8 million TEU during the pandemic.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.