Imports of goods into the U.S. fell by 4% from May to June, signaling an end to a spring surge in cargo brought in to get ahead of the Trump administration's August 1 deadline for reciprocal tariffs.

According to data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on August 5, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to the tightest it's been since September 2023, with the country's goods and services trade gap shrinking by 16% month-to-month in June. Imports of consumers goods also fell to their lowest levels since September 2020, while the share of total imports represented by those from China has more than halved since the start of the year, dipping from 15% in January to 7% by the end of June. 

"While recent trade deals provide some certainty over the path for tariffs, we still look for reduced trade volumes over the course of the year as bloated inventories, reduced business and consumer spending, and higher prices weigh on demand for goods," said Matthew Martin, a senior economist with Oxford Economics. 

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Others have warned of a similar slump in imports for the rest of the year, with the National Retail Federation projecting double-digit year-over-year declines in import volumes at U.S. ports in each month between August and November. In a July 29 briefing, Georgia Ports Authority CEO Griff Lynch said that he expects cargo volumes to continue to be "very up-and-down until things get settled," while Port of Los Angeles executive director Gene Seroka said in a July 14 briefing that retailers are unlikely to bring in high volumes of goods without better assurances from the Trump administration regarding tariff deadlines.

Although the White House has announced trade deals with several nations in recent weeks, President Trump is expected to unveil new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and rare earth minerals in the weeks ahead. The U.S. also saw weaker-than-expected job growth in May, June and July, prompting Trump to fire the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 1.