For the first time in the 18 months that ForecastIQ has been predicting same store sales, the number of instances where growth is likely or almost certain is higher than instances of likely decline. The uptick in the predictions so far in 2010 should be met with cautious optimism, however, given the easy comparables from a year ago. ForecastIQ is a service of Prosper Technologies LLC.
Warehouse clubs (BJ's and Costco) and retailers with a discount offering, such as Ross and TJX, continue to be more likely to experience growth in same store sales. Specialty retailers Abercrombie & Fitch, Aeropostale, Children's Place and Wet Seal are also likely to see an increase. This is the second month in a row that Abercrombie & Fitch is expecting growth after a long-term trend of negative forecasts. Similarly, Wet Seal is coming off 17 months of predictions for decline.
On the other hand, department stores, including Bon-Ton, Dillard's and JCPenney are almost certain to post a decline through May. Sales are expected to be flat at American Eagle, Banana Republic and Old Navy.
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