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Home » Blogs » Think Tank » How to Make Smarter Shipping Decisions for an Unpredictable Peak Season

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How to Make Smarter Shipping Decisions for an Unpredictable Peak Season

A YOUNG, SMILING WOMAN HOLDS A PACKAGE AS SHE WALKS FROM A DELIVERY VAN IN A SUBURBAN STREET06726727.jpg

Photo: iStock/sturti

December 5, 2025
Barbara Rausch, SCB Contributor

Every year, as the holidays approach, the same question echoes across retail operations meetings: How fast can we move orders? But that’s the wrong question to ask. The better one actually protects profit: When is speed worth paying for?

This peak season, that decision has never been harder. Tariffs are shifting, customs inspections are tightening, and global networks remain unpredictable. Many retailers assume the safest response is to expedite everything. In reality, speed can’t buy stability, and it often adds cost without delivering proportional results.

Retailers may not need to overhaul their strategies this holiday season, but they do need to evaluate their options differently. That means making smarter decisions about when speed adds value, how carrier diversification reshapes those choices, and what planning steps will protect margins in a volatile trade environment.

What Really Drives the Decision

Expedited shipping isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution. Retailers first need to examine what’s being shipped, how much it’s worth, and what customers expect. For high-value or lightweight products, like electronics, cosmetics or jewelry, paying for speed can protect customer experience and preserve loyalty. A delayed $500 order risks both the immediate sale and long-term customer lifetime value. But for bulky items or low-margin items, the cost of expedited shipping can erase profit altogether.

Communication also plays a major role in the decision. If marketing promises that orders placed by a certain date will arrive before Christmas, or if customers select a specific delivery date at checkout, those commitments must be fulfilled. In these situations, absorbing expedited shipping costs may be the right call, particularly for brands with highly visible online presences where missed deliveries generate public complaints.

Shoppers don’t always prioritize speed, though, and offering multiple delivery options at checkout can reduce cost while ensuring satisfaction. When customers can choose between good, better and best shipping tiers, they decide for themselves whether to pay for speed or wait for a lower price. According to a recent AlixPartners survey, more than 80% of consumers will wait an extra day to consolidate deliveries if it saves cost or reduces emissions. Giving customers control over that trade-off protects margins without sacrificing experience.

Carrier Diversification Changes the Math

The decision to expedite looks very different when retailers diversify their carrier mix. Depending on a single carrier often means paying for speed that doesn’t always deliver. Without flexibility built into the network, one disruption — strikes, weather, clearance backlogs — delays the whole process, and the premium paid for expedited shipping is lost.

A network of multiple carriers solves that problem. An analysis of more than 20 million parcels found that diversified networks deliver up to 37% faster than single-carrier systems. Those improvements come from smarter routing, not premium spending.

Having multiple options also means access to different standard delivery speeds. For example, some carriers operate standard service that delivers to the United Kingdom in three days, negating the need to expedite shipments in most cases. Others excel in such challenging markets as South America or Russia, where expedited service makes sense. Multi-carrier strategies allow retailers to make granular decisions by destination rather than defaulting to blanket expedited spending.

Diversification is key, as trade routes continue to shift under changing tariff policies. It provides redundancy, allowing volume to shift to unaffected providers without the customer even noticing an issue.

For retailers looking to diversify now, the timing is important. Onboarding isn’t immediate. Both the retailer and carrier need time to work through integration challenges, and to establish a baseline metric before volume surges. Attempting to onboard new carriers in late November or December is tricky and, at that point, it's best to wait until after the year’s most critical fulfillment window.

Planning Beats Panic

To stay ahead of the uncertainty this year, more retailers are acting early. Some are moving their holiday sales calendars up, others are staging inventory closer to key markets, or even holding it in regional warehouses to cut down on transit time and minimize customs exposure. Many of these strategies echo what retailers did during the pandemic, when capacity constraints and personnel shortages slowed fulfillment. The cause is different now, but the response of advanced planning and strategic inventory positioning remains the same.

Planning also means working with smart fulfillment partners who understand current bottlenecks and how to navigate them. Increasingly, customs systems are flagging sensitive words for inspection even when they don’t describe the actual product. A Guns N’ Roses vinyl gets pulled for manual review simply because “guns” appears in the description. That knowledge helps retailers make smarter decisions about expedited shipping.

Planning doesn’t eliminate volatility, but it takes away some of the sting. The retailers that succeed will treat speed as a strategic choice, and understand when to move quickly and when the smarter move is to plan for reliability. They overdeliver and undercommit, building trust through consistency rather than overpaying for speed and hoping conditions cooperate. In a peak season defined by tariff uncertainty and customs scrutiny, that approach protects both margins and customer experience.

Barbara Rausch is global account manager at ePost Global.

Air Cargo Last Mile Delivery Logistics Freight Forwarding/Customs Brokerage Global Logistics LTL/Truckload Services Ocean Transportation Parcel & Express Rail & Intermodal Transportation & Distribution Business Strategy Alignment Customer Relationship Management Global Supply Chain Management Quality & Metrics Regulation & Compliance Sustainability & Corporate Social Responsibility Apparel Consumer Packaged Goods E-Commerce/Omni-Channel Food & Beverage High-Tech/Electronics Retail

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