If you’re a retailer just gearing up for the peak holiday shopping season, you’re probably already too late.

In fact, the very notion of a big selling period that’s treated as a once-a-year phenomenon is out of date, says Greg Dyer, chief commercial officer of the staffing agency Randstad USA.

“Companies need to always be thinking about peak — constantly involving all areas within the organization,” he says. That means tightly coordinating planning across manufacturing, logistics, marketing and sales on an ongoing basis.

Dyer says the underling dynamics of “peak” have shifted since the COVID-19 pandemic. That was followed by several years of flat demand, with less variation among seasons. Finally, the recovery from COVID created a peak of its own, one that wasn’t tied to any particular time of the year. (The buildup of inventory earlier this year by importers looking to get ahead of new tariffs was another decidedly unseasonal event.)

Another hallmark of modern-day retailing is an extended late-year peak period, during which back-to-school flows seamlessly into Halloween, Black Friday, and the final Christmas rush.

While some measure of normality has returned to certain aspects of retailing this year, the very idea of a “normal” demand curve has been relegated to history, Dyer suggests. In times of high volatility and uncertainty, retailers need to up their game by preparing for any market they might encounter. And that means having access to a wealth of data that can help them match real-world purchasing patterns — historical and current — with appropriate staffing at stores and warehouses.

Dyer points to some telltale signs that a retailer or distributor needs to bolster staff in the face of surging demand. One is a high rate of absenteeism, the cost of which rises as workforces become increasingly strained. Another is an increase in overtime, as organizations struggle to meet order, production and shipping deadlines with limited staff.

Balancing core staff with a flexible workforce can be a challenge. In theory, companies with a higher percentage of temporary workers are better positioned to quickly scale up or down in accordance with demand. But they’re also saddled with the time and cost of onboarding temp hires, who need time to get accustomed to the unique requirements and expectations of a given facility.

The nature of the temporary labor force, to the extent it consists of younger workers, is changing as well. “Talent is much more in control in terms of how they want to work,” Dyer says. Employers must display greater flexibility in assigning tasks and scheduling shifts.

For all the talk of labor shortages in the distribution industry, employers are currently finding enough staff to meet their needs, even during this latest period of peak demand, Dyer says. The trick lies in giving workers a choice of shifts, while minimizing overtime and ensuring that operations continue uninterrupted. That said, “we don’t generally see a worker shortage for flexible situations.”

Automation has been touted as the solution to any labor shortages that might arise in distribution facilities today. But Dyer hasn’t seen large numbers of workers displaced due to the installation of automated systems. What’s happening, he says, is that the nature of human work is changing, resulting in some cases in a need for higher-skilled positions.

That reality doesn’t necessarily call for new hires with a deeper educational background. Often, Dyer says, facilities are able to equip them with the necessary skills on the job. “They’re mostly operating equipment and technology that’s no different than the computer you hold in your hand.”

Even as the year rushes to a close, retailers could find themselves having to pivot due to unexpected events. Dyer says they need to keep an eye on the legal and regulatory arena, in particular any new state laws that might affect wages and benefits. Then there’s the ongoing impact of the tariffs on the cost and availability of goods.

With all those factors in mind, it’s essential that retailers and distributors engage in planning exercises that envision multiple “what-if” scenarios, and their potential impact on staffing requirements, Dyer says. With the prospect of losing customers hanging over their heads, the need to guess correctly “is more critical than ever.”