Last year’s peak season proved what many in e-commerce have suspected: The old “fast or free” debate is over. Consumers are savvier, more deliberate and far less tolerant of guesswork at checkout. The winners in 2024 weren’t the fastest shippers — they were the most transparent ones.

Here's what last year’s numbers showed, and what they signal for the season ahead.

The Early Surge

The 2024 Black Friday weekend lived up to the hype. Across thousands of merchants using ShipperHQ, website traffic jumped nearly threefold on Black Friday compared to an average day, and overall sales across Black Friday and Cyber Monday rose 7.7% year-over-year. 

But the real story was timing. Consumers didn’t wait for the doorbusters — they shopped early to beat inventory shortages and delivery bottlenecks. Amazon shipped its holiday toy catalogue in early October this year, which was a smart move, as we can expect traffic to begin steadily climbing as early as the first week of November. Last year, November traffic was about 40% higher than October.

For merchants, that means getting a jump start on promotions, inventory planning, and fulfillment optimization. Peak season now stretches a full six to eight weeks. Brands that front-load their offers, prepare fulfillment operations early, and communicate cutoff dates clearly will be the ones to capture that expanded window.

Cost Still Matters, But Clarity Wins 

Speed still matters, but not as much as transparency. Shoppers are willing to wait a little longer if it means keeping shipping costs low.

Even with record digital spending, 74% of shoppers chose the cheapest shipping option available. Consumers are cost-driven, yes. But they also expect to understand exactly what they’re paying for. Hidden fees or vague delivery timelines erode trust.

This is where smarter shipping management makes or breaks conversion. Dynamically surfacing delivery options that balance cost, distance and carrier performance allows merchants to hold margins without losing customers. Clear delivery dates drive completion rates higher, even on slower options. Shoppers can accept slower shipping; they can’t accept surprises.

The Cutoff Crunch

Every December, carrier deadlines tighten, and 2024 was no exception. With Christmas falling midweek, the last guaranteed shipping dates landed just days before the holiday. Retailers who broadcast those deadlines early disappointed fewer consumers. Those who didn’t faced the usual chaos of customer service overload and preventable churn.

Heading into peak season this year, the lesson is clear: Start those conversations early. Over-communicate. Display deadlines prominently, send email reminders, and build buffer time. The most trusted retailers make shipping transparent and predictable for buyers. 

A New Shape to Peak Season 

Peak season used to mean a brief but high-stress, surge. The data from 2024 shows the traditional “spike and scramble” model is fading. Instead of a surge between Thanksgiving and Christmas as it used to be, we’re now seeing a longer, more predictable curve. That’s good news for logistics teams — if their operations are flexible and ready.

Here's the play: Diversify fulfillment by using regional warehouses, local delivery partners or ship-from-store options. This can help absorb fluctuations in demand, and maintain reasonable delivery times without overextending any single carrier or location.

Treat holiday shipping less like a sprint and more like a marathon; one that begins before Halloween and stretches through post-holiday returns in January. Merchants who adapt to shifting costs, capacity limits, and customer expectations will be the ones who win this peak season.

Be ready for demand to start early. Shoppers will be on the hunt well before Thanksgiving. 

Cost transparency will remain non-negotiable. Inflation will keep shoppers laser-focused on transparency. Consumers will demand clear, upfront shipping costs. Surprise fees will be a deal-breaker.  

Capacity constraints will persist during the final two weeks of December, making carrier diversification and alternative fulfillment critical.  

Sustainability will move from “nice to have” to “table stakes” as shoppers ask tougher questions about packaging, sourcing and carbon footprint.

The holiday season now rewards precision over speed. The brands that plan early, communicate clearly, and set prices honestly will win loyalty long after the presents are opened. 

Quentin Montalto is Chief Operating Officer of ShipperHQ.