• Advertise
  • Contact Us
  • About Us
  • Supplier Directory
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Logout
  • My Profile

  • CORONAVIRUS
  • LOGISTICS
    • Air Cargo
    • All Logistics
    • Express/Small Shipments
    • Facility Location Planning
    • Freight Forwarding/Customs Brokerage
    • Global Gateways
    • Global Logistics
    • Last Mile Delivery
    • Logistics Outsourcing
    • LTL/Truckload Services
    • Ocean Transportation
    • Rail & Intermodal
    • Reverse Logistics
    • Service Parts Management
    • Transportation & Distribution
  • TECHNOLOGY
    • All Technology
    • Artificial Intelligence
    • Cloud & On-Demand Systems
    • Data Management (Big Data/IoT/Blockchain)
    • ERP & Enterprise Systems
    • Forecasting & Demand Planning
    • Global Trade Management
    • Inventory Planning/ Optimization
    • Product Lifecycle Management
    • Sales & Operations Planning
    • SC Finance & Revenue Management
    • SC Planning & Optimization
    • Sourcing/Procurement/SRM
    • Supply Chain Visibility
    • Transportation Management
  • GENERAL SCM
    • Business Strategy Alignment
    • Education & Professional Development
    • Global Supply Chain Management
    • Global Trade & Economics
    • HR & Labor Management
    • Quality & Metrics
    • Regulation & Compliance
    • SC Security & Risk Mgmt
    • Sustainability & Corporate Social Responsibility
  • WAREHOUSING
    • All Warehouse Services
    • Conveyors & Sortation
    • Lift Trucks & AGVs
    • Order Fulfillment
    • Packaging
    • RFID, Barcode, Mobility & Voice
    • Robotics
    • Warehouse Management Systems
  • INDUSTRIES
    • Aerospace & Defense
    • Apparel
    • Automotive
    • Chemicals & Energy
    • Consumer Packaged Goods
    • E-Commerce/Omni-Channel
    • Food & Beverage
    • Healthcare
    • High-Tech/Electronics
    • Industrial Manufacturing
    • Pharmaceutical/Biotech
    • Retail
  • REGIONS
    • Asia Pacific
    • Canada
    • China
    • Europe
    • Latin America
    • Middle East/Africa
    • North America
  • THINK TANK
  • PODCASTS
  • VIDEOS
  • WHITEPAPERS
Home » Advances in New Product Forecasting

Advances in New Product Forecasting

December 23, 2014
SupplyChainBrain

“New products are probably one of hardest things to forecast because they have no history, which is the basis of statistical forecasts,” says Chase.

Revolutionary products, Chase explains, are those that change the marketplace and the way we buy things. The introduction of digital cameras is a good example. “No one uses regular cameras with film anymore. There are no more one-hour film developers in parking lots. People print their own photos or just display them digitally.”

Most new products, however, are evolutionary, meaning they build off an existing product line, such as an ice cream maker’s introduction of single churn. Sales of a particular flavor of the original version can be used to forecast the same flavor in single churn, Chase says. “The new product is an evolution of an existing product, with new features added to enhance sales.”

To compensate for the lack of sales history on revolutionary new products, forecasters in the past have sifted through large amounts of data to identify a “surrogate” product with similar market characteristics to use in predicting demand. SAS has developed a patented process call Structured Judgment that improves this activity. “Today we create a product profile with the technology, hit a button and it goes out and in nanoseconds will find hundreds of surrogate products,” he says. “It brings this information into a graphical format where it can be standardized and adjusted for seasonality. That data is then used to forecast the new product in a way that enables decision making and allows continued adjustment.”

This technology also allows users to supplement structured data with unstructured data from internet sources like Facebook and Twitter, he says. “Using a tool called ‘sentiment analysis’ we can track how people feel about the new product during the launch. This data and technology were not available five years ago.”

Combining unstructured and structured data to improve forecasting is in its infancy and is one of the biggest overall challenges for users of big data, Chase says. “Combining structured, historical data with real-time unstructured data – what people are saying about the product during launch – holds tremendous promise for more successful product launches,” he says.

To view the video in its entirety, click here

RELATED CONTENT

RELATED VIDEOS

Global Logistics Technology Forecasting & Demand Planning Sales & Operations Planning SC Planning & Optimization Supply Chain Visibility Global Supply Chain Management Quality & Metrics
KEYWORDS advisory industry consultant Charlie Chase Forecasting & Demand Planning Global Logistics Global Supply Chain Management inventory management systems IT supply chain IT supply chain management logistics & supply chain logistics IT solutions logistics management Quality & Metrics Sales & Operations Planning SAS SC Planning & Optimization supply chain Supply Chain Analysis & Consulting Supply Chain Management supply chain management IT supply chain management SCM supply chain management: forecasting and demand planning Supply Chain Planning supply chain solutions supply chain systems Supply Chain Visibility Technology
  • Related Articles

    Advances in New Product Forecasting

    Achieving Excellence in New-Product Forecasting

    Achieving Excellence in New-Product Forecasting

SupplyChainBrain

100 Great Supply Chain Partners Issue 2009

More from this author

Wake up to Coronavirus Updates and the latest Supply Chain News!

Subscribe to our Daily Newsletter

Timely, incisive articles delivered directly to your inbox.

Popular Stories

  • Coronavirus-watch-Armada

    Virus Update: EU Nations Waiting on Moderna Shots; China’s Exports Surge

    Coronavirus
  • China

    China’s Tech Revolution Aims to Cut Dependence on West

    Technology
  • Walmart

    Walmart Embraces a Local Fulfillment Model for Grocery

    Logistics
  • How Can E-Commerce Retailers Compete?

    Smaller E-Tailers Weigh Pros and Cons of Fulfillment by Amazon

    Logistics
  • IBM

    Tracing the Supply-Chain Journey of Green Products With Blockchain

    Data Management (Big Data/IoT/Blockchain)

Digital Edition

Scb feb 2021 lg

2021 Supply Chain Management Resource Guide

VIEW THE LATEST ISSUE

Case Studies

  • Remote Implementation: A Dose of the Right Medicine for B2B Pharmacy

  • LSP Saves Customer $1.5 Million a Year With MPO Global Inbound Management

  • Auto Supplier Wows Key Client Using riskmethods Supply Chain Savvy

  • Integrating Shipping and Compliance Saves Conglomerate Millions

  • How a Consumer Goods Giant Upped Its On-Time Delivery Performance

Visit Our Sponsors

6 River Systems ArcBest Armada
aThingz BluJay Burris Logistics
DSC Logistics DCSA (Digital Container Shipping Association) DHL Resilience360
Genpact Geodis GEP
GreyOrange Honeywell Intelligrated Infor
Inmar Kibo Commerce Logility
Magnitude Software MPO Old Dominion
Oliver Wight OpenSky Paccurate
Ports America Purolator QAD Precision
Red Classic Riskmethods Snapfulfil
TGW Systems Tradepoint Atlantic Transportation Insights
Watson Land Company Westfalia Technologies Workjam
Yang Ming    
  • More From SCB
    • Featured Content
    • Video Library
    • Think Tank Blog
    • SupplyChainBrain Podcast
    • Whitepapers
    • Webinars
  • Digital Offerings
    • Digital Issue
    • Subscribe
    • Manage Your Subscription
    • Newsletters
  • Resources
    • Events Calendar
    • SCB's Great Supply Chain Partners
    • Supplier Directory
    • Case Study Showcase
    • Supply Chain Innovation Awards
    • 100 Great Partners Form
  • SCB Corporate
    • Advertise on SCB.COM
    • About Us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Contact Us
    • Data Sharing Opt-Out

All content copyright ©2021 Keller International Publishing Corp All rights reserved. No reproduction, transmission or display is permitted without the written permissions of Keller International Publishing Corp

Design, CMS, Hosting & Web Development :: ePublishing