The firm, New Frontier Data, had also estimated that total sales in California would reach $6.7bn by 2025, but now says it is more likely the industry will generate $4.72bn by then.

Most cities in California have refused to allow pot businesses, and there are tough rules for those who want state licenses to grow, distribute and sell marijuana. Both are to blame for the lower-than-projected sales, according to Giadha Aguirre De Carcer, chief executive of New Frontier Data.

Only about 30 percent of California’s 540 cities and counties have authorized some form of commercial cannabis activity, according to Amy Jenkins, a spokeswoman for the California Cannabis Industry Assn. That, she said, is “forcing consumers to turn to the illicit market.”

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