• Advertise
  • Contact Us
  • Supplier Directory
  • SCB YouTube
  • About Us
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Logout
  • My Profile
  • LOGISTICS
    • Air Cargo
    • All Logistics
    • Facility Location Planning
    • Freight Forwarding/Customs Brokerage
    • Global Gateways
    • Global Logistics
    • Last Mile Delivery
    • Logistics Outsourcing
    • LTL/Truckload Services
    • Ocean Transportation
    • Parcel & Express
    • Rail & Intermodal
    • Reverse Logistics
    • Service Parts Management
    • Transportation & Distribution
  • TECHNOLOGY
    • All Technology
    • Artificial Intelligence
    • Cloud & On-Demand Systems
    • Data Management (Big Data/IoT/Blockchain)
    • ERP & Enterprise Systems
    • Forecasting & Demand Planning
    • Global Trade Management
    • Inventory Planning/ Optimization
    • Product Lifecycle Management
    • Robotics
    • Sales & Operations Planning
    • SC Finance & Revenue Management
    • SC Planning & Optimization
    • Supply Chain Visibility
    • Transportation Management
  • GENERAL SCM
    • Business Strategy Alignment
    • Customer Relationship Management
    • Education & Professional Development
    • Global Supply Chain Management
    • Global Trade & Economics
    • Green Energy
    • HR & Labor Management
    • Quality & Metrics
    • Regulation & Compliance
    • Sourcing/Procurement/SRM
    • SC Security & Risk Mgmt
    • Supply Chains in Crisis
    • Sustainability & Corporate Social Responsibility
  • WAREHOUSING
    • All Warehouse Services
    • Conveyors & Sortation
    • Lift Trucks & AGVs
    • Order Management & Fulfillment
    • Packaging
    • RFID, Barcode, Mobility & Voice
    • Warehouse Automation
    • Warehouse Management Systems
  • INDUSTRIES
    • Aerospace & Defense
    • Apparel
    • Automotive
    • Chemicals & Energy
    • Consumer Packaged Goods
    • E-Commerce/Omni-Channel
    • Food & Beverage
    • Healthcare
    • High-Tech/Electronics
    • Industrial Manufacturing
    • Pharmaceutical/Biotech
    • Retail
  • THINK TANK
  • WEBINARS
    • On-Demand Webinars
    • Upcoming Webinars
    • Webinar Library
  • PODCASTS
  • WHITEPAPERS
  • VIDEOS
Home » A Dose of Reality: U.S. Army Revamps the Forecast to Reflect Actual Demand

A Dose of Reality: U.S. Army Revamps the Forecast to Reflect Actual Demand

December 18, 2015
SupplyChainBrain

Many of the techniques practiced by supply-chain professionals in the private sector originated in the military - including the term "logistics." So it's only fair that the U.S. Army should draw on the lessons of business in return.

The Army Materiel Command (AMC) oversees all aspects of the service’s logistics, including transportation, sustainment, uniforms, weapons and battlefield movements. Jim Dwyer, principal deputy chief of staff for logistics and operations planning at AMC headquarters, says the group has done a commendable job of managing huge amounts of inventory and logistics during the Iran and Afghanistan engagements, "at probably near-record rates for the entire war." Nevertheless, he saw an opportunity for cutting costs dramatically.

Dwyer was intrigued by the private sector’s embrace of sales and operations planning (S&OP), a method of getting the various disciplines within an organization to rally around a consensus forecast. At the same time, he was seeing the value of the enterprise resource planning application that AMC had installed in various subordinate commands between 2003 and 2010. Part of the Army’s modernization program, it was the first ERP system to be implemented successfully within the U.S. Department of Defense.

What really caught Dwyer’s attention, though, was the concept of integrated business planning (IBP), sometimes referred to as advanced S&OP. It takes the idea of internal collaboration even further, drawing on disparate processes to create one holistic organizational plan.

“When I found out what S&OP does in combination with supply-chain management, I understood that we could do that here in the Army,” says Dwyer. “I knew it would be hard, but I knew the benefits would far outstretch the pain and expense of implementation.”

Following DOD’s usual process for accepting bid solicitations, AMC selected the consultancy of Oliver Wight Americas to guide it through the IBP effort. Oliver Wight principal Jim Correll says the firm was invited to review AMC’s S&OP process following a struggle by the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) to acquire similar capability. Its conclusion: “There wasn’t any.”

What’s It All About?

With Oliver Wight on board, Dwyer proceeded to learn exactly what an S&OP effort entailed. The Army had been relying on historical demand patterns to assess its future needs. But that perspective “can be skewed and inaccurate, depending on how quickly things change,” he says. “We were looking to be more futuristic, and proactive versus reactive.”

Dwyer had no illusions about the challenges involved in promoting deep cultural change across a 65,000-person command. In fact, the business-process element of the project was more of an issue than the supporting technology, notwithstanding the years it had taken for AMC to get its ERP software up and running.

Oliver Wight is credited with having originated the concept of S&OP in the 1980s. “Our whole process is about people change and process change,” says Correll. Applying the technique to the tradition-bound U.S. Army would require no deviation from the firm’s approach.

There were frustrations along the way. The education effort began with just a handful of people at AMC. It reached a turning point when Oliver Wight was able to show members of the command what the existing data looked like. They saw inventory levels continuing to rise, even though the demand forecast was flat.

“I wasn’t real happy,” recalls Dwyer. Yet the supply-demand mismatch only motivated him more to reform AMC’s approach to planning. “We went all in,” he says, “and adopted it across all three commodity commands – aviation, electronics and ground.”

The command’s logistics managers weren’t used to being asked for their real-world demand data, but soon came to understand why it was needed. Dwyer calls it “a huge business-process change – the Army collaborating more with its customers.”

Even the best demand forecast faces uncertainties, of course. AMC was careful to build a degree of surge capability into its inventory levels, “to make sure we don’t get caught in a very quick rising storm.” It pre-positions stocks around the world to help mitigate or buffer a sudden need for supplies.

A Top-Down Effort

AMC began installing the new system in March 2013, with the adoption of S&OP. Dwyer shepherded the effort and stayed involved on a monthly basis, supported by senior executives at the various lifecycle-management commands. “It was a top-down-driven event,” he says.

By the summer of 2014, some commands had already achieved “Class-A distinction,” reaching AMC’s target for best practices. The rest of the command caught up in 2015. The whole effort took less than two years to implement worldwide, Dwyer says. “Once people saw the value of this and what it could do for us, they moved very quickly.”

Even so, there was a learning curve with which to contend. Correll says the effort probably encountered more resistance at the outset due to the realities of military culture. Oliver Wight began by coaching small teams of AMC’s managers, who would in turn undertake actual implementation of the system. In the end, AMC achieved full buy-in from both senior executives and the subordinate commands.

The benefits were dramatic. As a result of the program, AMC was able to cut inventory by $6bn over a period of two years. Projected annual savings over the coming 10 years were also in the billions. Annual storage costs were reduced by $60m, and the agency saw a 50-percent reduction in both inventory staff and forecast error.

Today, AMC only buys what it needs. “We’re able to provide the same level of readiness to our soldiers at a much reduced cost,” says Dwyer. “And we’re doing it with fewer people.”

There’s more work to be done. Dwyer says AMC continues to tweak its forecast and inventory policies. “We’re improving every month,” he says, “and there’s no end to it.”

Resource Links:
U.S. Army Materiel Command
Oliver Wight

    RELATED CONTENT

    RELATED VIDEOS

    Logistics Global Logistics Transportation & Distribution Forecasting & Demand Planning Inventory Planning/ Optimization Sales & Operations Planning Supply Chain Planning & Optimization Supply Chain Finance & Revenue Management Supply Chain Visibility Business Strategy Alignment Global Supply Chain Management Order Management & Fulfillment Aerospace & Defense
    KEYWORDS Aerospace & Defense Army Materiel Command Business Strategy Alignment Forecasting & Demand Planning forecasting and demand planning Global Logistics Global Supply Chain Management Integrated Business Planning inventory control Inventory Management Inventory Planning/ Optimization Logistics order fulfillment Sales & Operations Planning Sales And Operations Planning SC Finance & Revenue Management SC Planning & Optimization supply chain Supply Chain Analysis & Consulting Supply Chain Management supply chain management: aerospace and defense Supply Chain Visibility Transportation & Distribution
    • Related Articles

      Painting a Picture of Actual Demand

      A Guide to the World of Augmented Reality

      SupplyChainBrain Power Lunch: Should We Forget About the Forecast?

    • Related Directories

      Tecsys, Inc.

      ProcureAbility

    SupplyChainBrain

    C.H. Robinson Launches Self-Service Digital Freight Tool

    More from this author

    Subscribe to our Daily Newsletter!

    Timely, incisive articles delivered directly to your inbox.

    Featured Product

    Popular Stories

    • A LARGE CYLINDRICAL OBJECT SHRINK-WRAPPED IN WHITE PLASTIC IS LOWERED BY CRANE ONTO A FLAT BED TRUCK ON A DOCK

      AI Boom Has European Buyers Paying Extra to Secure Gas Turbines

      Technology
    • 016_ai_and_data_transformation_in_distribution_v1-(540p).png

      Watch: AI and Data Transformation in Distribution

      Artificial Intelligence
    • DOMINO EFFECT FINANCIAL MONEY KNOCK-ON CONSEQUENCES iStock-Devrimb-1500012566.jpg

      Podcast | The Tariff Conundrum for Supply Chains: Pass Along, or Absorb?

      Supply Chain Finance & Revenue Management
    • TWO WORKERS DISCUSS DATA SHOWN ON COMPUTER SCREENS

      Gartner: Gap in SC AI Talent Cannot Be Closed by Hiring Alone

      Artificial Intelligence
    • A pair of hands reaches towards a cluster of icons showing global logistics network distribution and transportation

      CSCMP's State of Logistics Report: Get Used to the Fog

      Logistics

    Digital Edition

    2026 esg cover main scb q2 2026 cover

    SupplyChainBrain 2026 ESG Guide: ESG — The Supply Chain’s Biggest Secret

    VIEW THE LATEST ISSUE

    Case Studies

    • Recycled Tagging Fasteners: Small Changes Make a Big Impact

    • A GRAPHIC SHOWING MULTIPLE FORMS OF SHIPPING, WITH A HUMAN STANDING AT THE CENTER, TOUCHING A SYMBOLIC MAP OF THE WORLD

      Enhancing High-Value Electronics Shipment Security with Tive's Real-Time Tracking

    • A GRAPHIC OF INTERLACING HONEYCOMBED ELEMENTS REPRESENTING GLOBAL BUSINESS TRANSACTIONS

      Moving Robots Site-to-Site

    • JLL Finds Perfect Warehouse Location, Leading to $15M Grant for Startup

    • Robots Speed Fulfillment to Help Apparel Company Scale for Growth

    Visit Our Sponsors

    4flow Arkieva Blue Yonder
    Carton Cloud CoEnterprise Dassault
    Duravant E2Open General Logistics Systems
    Hy-Tek iGPS Korber
    Lyngsoe Procurability Quinyx
    SAP Sikick Systech
    S&P Global Mobility TADA TransImpact
    US Bank Werner Enterprises WSI
    • More From SCB
      • Featured Content
      • Video Library
      • Think Tank Blog
      • SupplyChainBrain Podcast
      • Whitepapers
      • On-Demand Webinars
      • Upcoming Webinars
    • Digital Offerings
      • Digital Issue
      • Subscribe
      • Manage Email Preferences
      • Newsletters
    • Resources
      • Events Calendar
      • 2026 Event Coverage
      • SCB's Great Supply Chain Partners
      • Supplier Directory
      • Case Study Showcase
      • Supply Chain Innovation Awards
      • 100 Great Partners Form
    • SCB Corporate
      • Advertise on SCB.COM
      • About Us
      • Privacy Policy
      • Contact Us
      • Data Sharing Opt-Out

    All content copyright ©2026 Keller International Publishing Corp All rights reserved. No reproduction, transmission or display is permitted without the written permissions of Keller International Publishing Corp

    Design, CMS, Hosting & Web Development :: ePublishing